Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 5-9 (35.7%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New York Giants beat the number by 19.5 points in NYG @ WAS. Games finished 4 over and 9 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens | Thu | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL -4 | Baltimore Ravens by 10 | 54 vs 46.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Carolina Panthers | Sun | DAL 33, CAR 10 | DAL -11 | Dallas Cowboys by 12 | 43 vs 43 Push |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | PIT 10, CLE 13 | CLE -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 0.5 | 23 vs 34 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions | Sun | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET -8 | Chicago Bears by 3 | 57 vs 48 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Green Bay Packers | Sun | LAC 20, GB 23 | LAC -3 | Green Bay Packers by 6 | 43 vs 44 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Houston Texans | Sun | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU -5.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 0.5 | 37 vs 48 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX -6.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 13.5 | 48 vs 40 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Miami Dolphins | Sun | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA -14 | Las Vegas Raiders by 7 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Washington Commanders | Sun | NYG 31, WAS 19 | WAS -7.5 | New York Giants by 19.5 | 50 vs 39 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | TB 14, SF 27 | SF -13.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.5 | 41 vs 41.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF -8 | Buffalo Bills by 18 | 38 vs 39.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SEA 16, LA 17 | LA -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 1.5 | 33 vs 45 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Denver Broncos | Sun | MIN 20, DEN 21 | DEN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 1.5 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | PHI 21, KC 17 | KC -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 6.5 | 38 vs 46 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 11, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.