Favorites went 12-4 against the spread (75.0%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Dallas Cowboys beat the number by 22 points in WAS @ DAL. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions | Thu | GB 29, DET 22 | DET -8.5 | Green Bay Packers by 15.5 | 51 vs 47 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | WAS 10, DAL 45 | DAL -13 | Dallas Cowboys by 22 | 55 vs 48 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks | Thu | SF 31, SEA 13 | SF -7 | San Francisco 49ers by 11 | 44 vs 43.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New York Jets | Fri | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA -9.5 | Miami Dolphins by 11.5 | 47 vs 40 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NO 15, ATL 24 | NO -2 | Atlanta Falcons by 11 | 39 vs 42 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | PIT 16, CIN 10 | PIT -2 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 | 26 vs 36 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans | Sun | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX -1 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 | 45 vs 48 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TB 20, IND 27 | IND -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 4.5 | 47 vs 45 Over |
| New England Patriots@New York Giants | Sun | NE 7, NYG 10 | NE -4.5 | New York Giants by 7.5 | 17 vs 36.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Tennessee Titans | Sun | CAR 10, TEN 17 | TEN -3.5 | Tennessee Titans by 3.5 | 27 vs 36 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 20 | 51 vs 45 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Denver Broncos | Sun | CLE 12, DEN 29 | DEN -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 15.5 | 41 vs 37.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | KC 31, LV 17 | KC -9 | Kansas City Chiefs by 5 | 48 vs 42.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | BUF 34, PHI 37 | PHI -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 0.5 | 71 vs 49 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 7 | 30 vs 49 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Minnesota Vikings | Mon | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN -3 | Chicago Bears by 5 | 22 vs 43.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 12, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.