Favorites went 8-5 against the spread (61.5%) and home teams 3-10 (23.1%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Miami Dolphins beat the number by 21.5 points in MIA @ WAS. Games finished 9 over and 4 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | SEA 35, DAL 41 | DAL -9.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 3.5 | 76 vs 47.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Houston Texans | Sun | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU -3.5 | Houston Texans by 1.5 | 39 vs 47.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@New England Patriots | Sun | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC -4.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 1.5 | 6 vs 38.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@New Orleans Saints | Sun | DET 33, NO 28 | DET -4 | Detroit Lions by 1 | 61 vs 47.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@New York Jets | Sun | ATL 13, NYJ 8 | ATL -2 | Atlanta Falcons by 3 | 21 vs 33 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | ARI 24, PIT 10 | PIT -6 | Arizona Cardinals by 20 | 34 vs 41 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans | Sun | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 1.5 | 59 vs 42 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Washington Commanders | Sun | MIA 45, WAS 15 | MIA -8.5 | Miami Dolphins by 21.5 | 60 vs 50 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB -4 | Carolina Panthers by 1 | 39 vs 37 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | CLE 19, LA 36 | LA -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 13.5 | 55 vs 39.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | SF 42, PHI 19 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 20 | 61 vs 46.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Green Bay Packers | Sun | KC 19, GB 27 | KC -5.5 | Green Bay Packers by 13.5 | 46 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Jacksonville Jaguars | Mon | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX -10 | Cincinnati Bengals by 13 | 65 vs 41 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 13, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.