Favorites went 4-10-1 against the spread (28.6%) and home teams 7-7-1 (50.0%). 8 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New York Jets beat the number by 27.5 points in HOU @ NYJ. Games finished 8 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots@Pittsburgh Steelers | Thu | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT -6 | New England Patriots by 9 | 39 vs 30 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL -1.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.5 | 54 vs 41.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | LA 31, BAL 37 | BAL -7.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 1.5 | 68 vs 42 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears | Sun | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET -3 | Chicago Bears by 18 | 41 vs 44.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | IND 14, CIN 34 | CIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 17 | 48 vs 45 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Cleveland Browns | Sun | JAX 27, CLE 31 | CLE -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 1.5 | 58 vs 37.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO -5.5 | New Orleans Saints by 16.5 | 34 vs 39 Under |
| Houston Texans@New York Jets | Sun | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU -3.5 | New York Jets by 27.5 | 36 vs 33.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | MIN 3, LV 0 | MIN -3 | Push | 3 vs 40.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF -14.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 2.5 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC -2 | Buffalo Bills by 5 | 37 vs 49.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC -3 | Denver Broncos by 20 | 31 vs 45 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 16.5 | 46 vs 52.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Miami Dolphins | Mon | TEN 28, MIA 27 | MIA -14 | Tennessee Titans by 15 | 55 vs 45 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@New York Giants | Mon | GB 22, NYG 24 | GB -6 | New York Giants by 8 | 46 vs 37.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 14, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.