Favorites went 9-4-3 against the spread (69.2%) and home teams 9-4-3 (69.2%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Las Vegas Raiders beat the number by 39 points in LAC @ LV. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers@Las Vegas Raiders | Thu | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV -3 | Las Vegas Raiders by 39 | 84 vs 36 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Cincinnati Bengals | Sat | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN -3 | Push | 51 vs 41.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Indianapolis Colts | Sat | PIT 13, IND 30 | IND -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 15.5 | 43 vs 41.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Detroit Lions | Sat | DEN 17, DET 42 | DET -5.5 | Detroit Lions by 19.5 | 59 vs 49 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL -3 | Carolina Panthers by 5 | 16 vs 32 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CHI 17, CLE 20 | CLE -3 | Push | 37 vs 38 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Green Bay Packers | Sun | TB 34, GB 20 | GB -4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 | 54 vs 41.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA -7.5 | Miami Dolphins by 22.5 | 30 vs 36 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@New England Patriots | Sun | KC 27, NE 17 | KC -10 | Push | 44 vs 39.5 Over |
| New York Giants@New Orleans Saints | Sun | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO -6 | New Orleans Saints by 12 | 30 vs 39.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Tennessee Titans | Sun | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN -3 | Houston Texans by 6 | 35 vs 38 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF -12.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 3.5 | 74 vs 48 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | WAS 20, LA 28 | LA -6.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 1.5 | 48 vs 48.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Buffalo Bills | Sun | DAL 10, BUF 31 | BUF -2 | Buffalo Bills by 19 | 41 vs 49.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL -4 | Baltimore Ravens by 12 | 30 vs 42.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Seattle Seahawks | Mon | PHI 17, SEA 20 | PHI -5 | Seattle Seahawks by 8 | 37 vs 46 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 15, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.