Favorites went 6-9-1 against the spread (40.0%) and home teams 8-7-1 (53.3%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Pittsburgh Steelers beat the number by 26 points in CIN @ PIT. Games finished 11 over and 5 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | NO 22, LA 30 | LA -4 | Los Angeles Rams by 4 | 52 vs 45.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sat | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 | 45 vs 39.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Los Angeles Chargers | Sat | BUF 24, LAC 22 | BUF -13 | Los Angeles Chargers by 11 | 46 vs 44.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | IND 10, ATL 29 | ATL -3 | Atlanta Falcons by 16 | 39 vs 44 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB -3.5 | Carolina Panthers by 0.5 | 63 vs 39.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Houston Texans | Sun | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE -3 | Cleveland Browns by 11 | 58 vs 40 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET -2.5 | Detroit Lions by 3.5 | 54 vs 47.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New York Jets | Sun | WAS 28, NYJ 30 | NYJ -3 | Washington Commanders by 1 | 58 vs 36.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Tennessee Titans | Sun | SEA 20, TEN 17 | SEA -3 | Push | 37 vs 42 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | JAX 12, TB 30 | JAX -2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 | 42 vs 43 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Chicago Bears | Sun | ARI 16, CHI 27 | CHI -4.5 | Chicago Bears by 6.5 | 43 vs 42 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Miami Dolphins | Sun | DAL 20, MIA 22 | MIA -1.5 | Miami Dolphins by 0.5 | 42 vs 48.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Denver Broncos | Sun | NE 26, DEN 23 | DEN -7 | New England Patriots by 10 | 49 vs 37.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | LV 20, KC 14 | KC -11 | Las Vegas Raiders by 17 | 34 vs 40.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles | Mon | NYG 25, PHI 33 | PHI -14 | New York Giants by 6 | 58 vs 41 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | BAL 33, SF 19 | SF -6.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 20.5 | 52 vs 47.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 16, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.