Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Baltimore Ravens beat the number by 34 points in MIA @ BAL. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets@Cleveland Browns | Thu | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE -6.5 | Cleveland Browns by 10.5 | 57 vs 33.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Dallas Cowboys | Sat | DET 19, DAL 20 | DAL -5.5 | Detroit Lions by 4.5 | 39 vs 53 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 34 | 75 vs 47 Over |
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF -15 | New England Patriots by 9 | 48 vs 40 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Chicago Bears | Sun | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI -3 | Chicago Bears by 17 | 54 vs 39 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans | Sun | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU -5 | Houston Texans by 18 | 29 vs 44 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | LV 20, IND 23 | IND -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 0.5 | 43 vs 42.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | CAR 0, JAX 26 | JAX -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 22.5 | 26 vs 38 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@New York Giants | Sun | LA 26, NYG 25 | LA -6 | New York Giants by 5 | 51 vs 43.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | ARI 35, PHI 31 | PHI -12 | Arizona Cardinals by 16 | 66 vs 48 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NO 23, TB 13 | TB -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 12.5 | 36 vs 42.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Washington Commanders | Sun | SF 27, WAS 10 | SF -14 | San Francisco 49ers by 3 | 37 vs 49 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | PIT 30, SEA 23 | SEA -4.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 11.5 | 53 vs 40.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos | Sun | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN -3.5 | Denver Broncos by 3.5 | 25 vs 39.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC -7.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 0.5 | 42 vs 46 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN -1 | Green Bay Packers by 24 | 43 vs 42.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 17, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.