Favorites went 10-6 against the spread (62.5%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New Orleans Saints beat the number by 27.5 points in ATL @ NO. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens | Sat | PIT 17, BAL 10 | PIT -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 | 27 vs 34 Under |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sat | HOU 23, IND 19 | HOU -1.5 | Houston Texans by 2.5 | 42 vs 47.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB -5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 | 9 vs 36.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CIN -7.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 9.5 | 45 vs 37 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions | Sun | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET -3.5 | Detroit Lions by 6.5 | 50 vs 47.5 Over |
| New York Jets@New England Patriots | Sun | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE -2.5 | New York Jets by 16.5 | 20 vs 28.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO -3.5 | New Orleans Saints by 27.5 | 65 vs 41.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans | Sun | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX -3.5 | Tennessee Titans by 11.5 | 48 vs 41.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SEA 21, ARI 20 | SEA -2.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 1.5 | 41 vs 48 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB -2.5 | Green Bay Packers by 5.5 | 26 vs 45.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | KC 13, LAC 12 | LAC -3.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5 | 25 vs 35 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 9.5 | 41 vs 37.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants | Sun | PHI 10, NYG 27 | PHI -4.5 | New York Giants by 21.5 | 37 vs 43 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | LA 21, SF 20 | SF -5.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 6.5 | 41 vs 40 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Washington Commanders | Sun | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL -13 | Dallas Cowboys by 15 | 48 vs 47.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins | Sun | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 4.5 | 35 vs 47.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 18, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.