Favorites went 4-7-2 against the spread (36.4%) and home teams 7-4-2 (63.6%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 18 points in IND @ NE. Games finished 4 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles@Houston Texans | Thu | PHI 29, HOU 17 | PHI -14 | Houston Texans by 2 | 46 vs 45.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | LAC 20, ATL 17 | LAC -2.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 0.5 | 37 vs 49.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Chicago Bears | Sun | MIA 35, CHI 32 | MIA -4 | Chicago Bears by 1 | 67 vs 46 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CAR 21, CIN 42 | CIN -7 | Cincinnati Bengals by 14 | 63 vs 43 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions | Sun | GB 9, DET 15 | GB -4 | Detroit Lions by 10 | 24 vs 49.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | LV 20, JAX 27 | LV -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 9.5 | 47 vs 47.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@New England Patriots | Sun | IND 3, NE 26 | NE -5 | New England Patriots by 18 | 29 vs 40 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@New York Jets | Sun | BUF 17, NYJ 20 | BUF -11 | New York Jets by 14 | 37 vs 46 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Washington Commanders | Sun | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN -3 | Push | 37 vs 43.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SEA 31, ARI 21 | ARI -1.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 11.5 | 52 vs 49.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | LA 13, TB 16 | TB -3 | Push | 29 vs 43 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | TEN 17, KC 20 | KC -14 | Tennessee Titans by 11 | 37 vs 45 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@New Orleans Saints | Mon | BAL 27, NO 13 | BAL -1 | Baltimore Ravens by 13 | 40 vs 46 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 9, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.