Favorites went 5-8-1 against the spread (38.5%) and home teams 7-6-1 (53.8%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Washington Commanders beat the number by 22 points in WAS @ PHI. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers | Thu | ATL 15, CAR 25 | ATL -2.5 | Carolina Panthers by 12.5 | 40 vs 41.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | SEA 16, TB 21 | TB -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.5 | 37 vs 45 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Buffalo Bills | Sun | MIN 33, BUF 30 | BUF -6.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 9.5 | 63 vs 47 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears | Sun | DET 31, CHI 30 | CHI -3 | Detroit Lions by 4 | 61 vs 48.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC -10 | Push | 44 vs 51.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Miami Dolphins | Sun | CLE 17, MIA 39 | MIA -3 | Miami Dolphins by 19 | 56 vs 49 Over |
| Houston Texans@New York Giants | Sun | HOU 16, NYG 24 | NYG -5.5 | New York Giants by 2.5 | 40 vs 41.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | NO 10, PIT 20 | PIT -1 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 | 30 vs 39.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Tennessee Titans | Sun | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 4.5 | 27 vs 40 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | IND 25, LV 20 | LV -4.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 9.5 | 45 vs 41 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Green Bay Packers | Sun | DAL 28, GB 31 | DAL -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 6.5 | 59 vs 44.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | ARI 27, LA 17 | LA -3.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 13.5 | 44 vs 38 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | LAC 16, SF 22 | SF -8.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 2.5 | 38 vs 45.5 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Mon | WAS 32, PHI 21 | PHI -11 | Washington Commanders by 22 | 53 vs 43 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 10, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.