Favorites went 7-6-1 against the spread (53.8%) and home teams 5-8-1 (38.5%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Dallas Cowboys beat the number by 35.5 points in DAL @ MIN. Games finished 8 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans@Green Bay Packers | Thu | TEN 27, GB 17 | GB -3 | Tennessee Titans by 13 | 44 vs 40.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL -3 | Push | 51 vs 48.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CAR 3, BAL 13 | BAL -13 | Carolina Panthers by 3 | 16 vs 42 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Buffalo Bills | Sun | CLE 23, BUF 31 | BUF -7.5 | Buffalo Bills by 0.5 | 54 vs 50.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Houston Texans | Sun | WAS 23, HOU 10 | WAS -3 | Washington Commanders by 10 | 33 vs 41 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | PHI 17, IND 16 | PHI -6.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 5.5 | 33 vs 45.5 Under |
| New York Jets@New England Patriots | Sun | NYJ 3, NE 10 | NE -3.5 | New England Patriots by 3.5 | 13 vs 38.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@New Orleans Saints | Sun | LA 20, NO 27 | NO -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 4.5 | 47 vs 39.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@New York Giants | Sun | DET 31, NYG 18 | NYG -3 | Detroit Lions by 16 | 49 vs 44 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Denver Broncos | Sun | LV 22, DEN 16 | DEN -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 8.5 | 38 vs 41.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DAL 40, MIN 3 | DAL -1.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 35.5 | 43 vs 48.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CIN 37, PIT 30 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 3.5 | 67 vs 39 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | KC 30, LAC 27 | KC -5.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 2.5 | 57 vs 52.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals | Mon | SF 38, ARI 10 | SF -10 | San Francisco 49ers by 18 | 48 vs 43.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 11, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.