Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 11-5 (68.8%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Carolina Panthers beat the number by 14 points in DEN @ CAR. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@Detroit Lions | Thu | BUF 28, DET 25 | BUF -10 | Detroit Lions by 7 | 53 vs 54 Under |
| New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | NYG 20, DAL 28 | DAL -10.5 | New York Giants by 2.5 | 48 vs 45.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Minnesota Vikings | Thu | NE 26, MIN 33 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 4.5 | 59 vs 42.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Carolina Panthers | Sun | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN -1 | Carolina Panthers by 14 | 33 vs 36.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | TB 17, CLE 23 | TB -3 | Cleveland Browns by 9 | 40 vs 42 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | BAL 27, JAX 28 | BAL -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 4.5 | 55 vs 43 Over |
| Houston Texans@Miami Dolphins | Sun | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA -14 | Miami Dolphins by 1 | 45 vs 47 Under |
| Chicago Bears@New York Jets | Sun | CHI 10, NYJ 31 | NYJ -8.5 | New York Jets by 12.5 | 41 vs 36.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Tennessee Titans | Sun | CIN 20, TEN 16 | CIN -1 | Cincinnati Bengals by 3 | 36 vs 43 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Washington Commanders | Sun | ATL 13, WAS 19 | WAS -3.5 | Washington Commanders by 2.5 | 32 vs 40.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | LAC 25, ARI 24 | LAC -2.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 1.5 | 49 vs 48.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | LV 40, SEA 34 | SEA -4 | Las Vegas Raiders by 10 | 74 vs 47.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LA 10, KC 26 | KC -16.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 0.5 | 36 vs 42 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | NO 0, SF 13 | SF -9.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 3.5 | 13 vs 44 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | GB 33, PHI 40 | PHI -6.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 0.5 | 73 vs 46 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Indianapolis Colts | Mon | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 9.5 | 41 vs 40 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 12, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.