Favorites went 10-5 against the spread (66.7%) and home teams 9-6 (60.0%). 1 underdog won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 25 points in JAX @ DET. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots | Thu | BUF 24, NE 10 | BUF -3.5 | Buffalo Bills by 10.5 | 34 vs 43.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | PIT 19, ATL 16 | PIT -1 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 | 35 vs 43 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | DEN 9, BAL 10 | BAL -9.5 | Denver Broncos by 8.5 | 19 vs 40.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears | Sun | GB 28, CHI 19 | GB -4 | Green Bay Packers by 5 | 47 vs 45 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Detroit Lions | Sun | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET -1 | Detroit Lions by 25 | 54 vs 51.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Houston Texans | Sun | CLE 27, HOU 14 | CLE -7.5 | Cleveland Browns by 5.5 | 41 vs 47 Under |
| New York Jets@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | NYJ 22, MIN 27 | MIN -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 2 | 49 vs 44 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New York Giants | Sun | WAS 20, NYG 20 | WAS -2.5 | New York Giants by 2.5 | 40 vs 40 Push |
| Tennessee Titans@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | TEN 10, PHI 35 | PHI -5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 20 | 45 vs 44.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SEA 27, LA 23 | SEA -7 | Los Angeles Rams by 3 | 50 vs 41 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF -4.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 11.5 | 50 vs 46 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC -2.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5.5 | 51 vs 53 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | LAC 20, LV 27 | LV -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 4.5 | 47 vs 49 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | IND 19, DAL 54 | DAL -11 | Dallas Cowboys by 24 | 73 vs 44.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mon | NO 16, TB 17 | TB -3.5 | New Orleans Saints by 2.5 | 33 vs 41 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 13, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.