Favorites went 5-8 against the spread (38.5%) and home teams 6-7 (46.2%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: San Francisco 49ers beat the number by 24.5 points in TB @ SF. Games finished 7 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | LV 16, LA 17 | LV -6.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 7.5 | 33 vs 42.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYJ 12, BUF 20 | BUF -10 | New York Jets by 2 | 32 vs 43.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CLE 10, CIN 23 | CIN -4.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 8.5 | 33 vs 47 Under |
| Houston Texans@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | HOU 23, DAL 27 | DAL -17 | Houston Texans by 13 | 50 vs 44.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions | Sun | MIN 23, DET 34 | DET -2.5 | Detroit Lions by 8.5 | 57 vs 51.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants | Sun | PHI 48, NYG 22 | PHI -7.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 18.5 | 70 vs 44.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BAL 16, PIT 14 | PIT -1.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 3.5 | 30 vs 37 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans | Sun | JAX 36, TEN 22 | TEN -3 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 | 58 vs 42 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos | Sun | KC 34, DEN 28 | KC -8.5 | Denver Broncos by 2.5 | 62 vs 44.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | CAR 30, SEA 24 | SEA -3.5 | Carolina Panthers by 9.5 | 54 vs 44.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | TB 7, SF 35 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 24.5 | 42 vs 38 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 9 | 40 vs 54.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Arizona Cardinals | Mon | NE 27, ARI 13 | NE -2 | New England Patriots by 12 | 40 vs 44 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 14, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.