Favorites went 6-9-1 against the spread (40.0%) and home teams 7-8-1 (46.7%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New York Giants beat the number by 12.5 points in NYG @ WAS. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks | Thu | SF 21, SEA 13 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 5 | 34 vs 43 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Minnesota Vikings | Sat | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 0.5 | 75 vs 46.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns | Sat | BAL 3, CLE 13 | CLE -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 7.5 | 16 vs 39.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills | Sat | MIA 29, BUF 32 | BUF -7 | Miami Dolphins by 4 | 61 vs 44 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | PIT 24, CAR 16 | CAR -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 40 vs 36.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Chicago Bears | Sun | PHI 25, CHI 20 | PHI -8.5 | Chicago Bears by 3.5 | 45 vs 48 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Houston Texans | Sun | KC 30, HOU 24 | KC -14.5 | Houston Texans by 8.5 | 54 vs 48.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | DAL 34, JAX 40 | DAL -4 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 | 74 vs 48.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ATL 18, NO 21 | NO -5 | Atlanta Falcons by 2 | 39 vs 43.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@New York Jets | Sun | DET 20, NYJ 17 | NYJ -2 | Detroit Lions by 5 | 37 vs 44 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Denver Broncos | Sun | ARI 15, DEN 24 | DEN -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 7.5 | 39 vs 37.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | NE 24, LV 30 | LV -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 5 | 54 vs 45 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | TEN 14, LAC 17 | LAC -3 | Push | 31 vs 46.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CIN 34, TB 23 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 7.5 | 57 vs 47 Over |
| New York Giants@Washington Commanders | Sun | NYG 20, WAS 12 | WAS -4.5 | New York Giants by 12.5 | 32 vs 40.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Green Bay Packers | Mon | LA 12, GB 24 | GB -8 | Green Bay Packers by 4 | 36 vs 39.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 15, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.