Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Los Angeles Rams beat the number by 40 points in DEN @ LA. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars@New York Jets | Thu | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | NYJ -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 18.5 | 22 vs 36.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Baltimore Ravens | Sat | ATL 9, BAL 17 | BAL -6.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 1.5 | 26 vs 35 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Carolina Panthers | Sat | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET -2.5 | Carolina Panthers by 16.5 | 60 vs 43.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Chicago Bears | Sat | BUF 35, CHI 13 | BUF -8 | Buffalo Bills by 14 | 48 vs 40 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Cleveland Browns | Sat | NO 17, CLE 10 | CLE -3 | New Orleans Saints by 10 | 27 vs 32 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Kansas City Chiefs | Sat | SEA 10, KC 24 | KC -10.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 3.5 | 34 vs 50.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Minnesota Vikings | Sat | NYG 24, MIN 27 | MIN -4.5 | New York Giants by 1.5 | 51 vs 48 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@New England Patriots | Sat | CIN 22, NE 18 | CIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1 | 40 vs 42 Under |
| Houston Texans@Tennessee Titans | Sat | HOU 19, TEN 14 | TEN -3 | Houston Texans by 8 | 33 vs 34 Under |
| Washington Commanders@San Francisco 49ers | Sat | WAS 20, SF 37 | SF -6.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 10.5 | 57 vs 37.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys | Sat | PHI 34, DAL 40 | DAL -4 | Dallas Cowboys by 2 | 74 vs 48 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sat | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 0.5 | 23 vs 38.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | GB 26, MIA 20 | MIA -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 9.5 | 46 vs 49 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | DEN 14, LA 51 | DEN -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 40 | 65 vs 36.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | TB 19, ARI 16 | TB -7.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 4.5 | 35 vs 41.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Indianapolis Colts | Mon | LAC 20, IND 3 | LAC -3.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 13.5 | 23 vs 44.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 16, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.