Favorites went 6-8-1 against the spread (42.9%) and home teams 7-7-1 (50.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 26.5 points in CHI @ DET. Games finished 6 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@Tennessee Titans | Thu | DAL 27, TEN 13 | DAL -14 | Push | 40 vs 41 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | ARI 19, ATL 20 | ATL -7 | Arizona Cardinals by 6 | 39 vs 41 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions | Sun | CHI 10, DET 41 | DET -4.5 | Detroit Lions by 26.5 | 51 vs 52.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans | Sun | JAX 31, HOU 3 | JAX -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 24.5 | 34 vs 43 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | DEN 24, KC 27 | KC -13.5 | Denver Broncos by 10.5 | 51 vs 46 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots | Sun | MIA 21, NE 23 | NE -3 | Miami Dolphins by 1 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@New York Giants | Sun | IND 10, NYG 38 | NYG -5.5 | New York Giants by 22.5 | 48 vs 38.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NO 20, PHI 10 | PHI -5.5 | New Orleans Saints by 15.5 | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CAR 24, TB 30 | TB -3.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.5 | 54 vs 40.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Washington Commanders | Sun | CLE 24, WAS 10 | WAS -1 | Cleveland Browns by 15 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | SF 37, LV 34 | SF -10 | Las Vegas Raiders by 7 | 71 vs 41.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | NYJ 6, SEA 23 | NYJ -1 | Seattle Seahawks by 18 | 29 vs 43 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Green Bay Packers | Sun | MIN 17, GB 41 | GB -3 | Green Bay Packers by 21 | 58 vs 47.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LA 10, LAC 31 | LAC -6.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 14.5 | 41 vs 41.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | PIT 16, BAL 13 | BAL -1 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 | 29 vs 35.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 17, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.