Favorites went 7-8-1 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 6-9-1 (40.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Washington Commanders beat the number by 27.5 points in DAL @ WAS. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs@Las Vegas Raiders | Sat | KC 31, LV 13 | KC -9 | Kansas City Chiefs by 9 | 44 vs 51.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sat | TEN 16, JAX 20 | JAX -6 | Tennessee Titans by 2 | 36 vs 39.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | TB 17, ATL 30 | ATL -6 | Atlanta Falcons by 7 | 47 vs 40.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NE 23, BUF 35 | BUF -8 | Buffalo Bills by 4 | 58 vs 44 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Sun | MIN 29, CHI 13 | MIN -6.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 9.5 | 42 vs 42.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BAL 16, CIN 27 | CIN -11 | Push | 43 vs 39 Over |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | HOU 32, IND 31 | IND -3 | Houston Texans by 4 | 63 vs 38 Over |
| New York Jets@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYJ 6, MIA 11 | MIA -3.5 | Miami Dolphins by 1.5 | 17 vs 37.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CAR 10, NO 7 | NO -3.5 | Carolina Panthers by 6.5 | 17 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CLE 14, PIT 28 | PIT -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 11.5 | 42 vs 40 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos | Sun | LAC 28, DEN 31 | DEN -6 | Los Angeles Chargers by 3 | 59 vs 38.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NYG 16, PHI 22 | PHI -16.5 | New York Giants by 10.5 | 38 vs 42.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | LA 16, SEA 19 | SEA -5.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 | 35 vs 41.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 13, SF 38 | SF -14 | San Francisco 49ers by 11 | 51 vs 40 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Washington Commanders | Sun | DAL 6, WAS 26 | DAL -7.5 | Washington Commanders by 27.5 | 32 vs 40.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers | Sun | DET 20, GB 16 | GB -5.5 | Detroit Lions by 9.5 | 36 vs 49 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 18, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.