Favorites went 7-7 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 7-7 (50.0%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 25.5 points in NE @ CLE. Games finished 4 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders@Chicago Bears | Thu | WAS 12, CHI 7 | WAS -1 | Washington Commanders by 4 | 19 vs 38.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | SF 14, ATL 28 | SF -3.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 17.5 | 42 vs 46 Under |
| New England Patriots@Cleveland Browns | Sun | NE 38, CLE 15 | CLE -2.5 | New England Patriots by 25.5 | 53 vs 43 Over |
| New York Jets@Green Bay Packers | Sun | NYJ 27, GB 10 | GB -7.5 | New York Jets by 24.5 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | JAX 27, IND 34 | IND -1 | Indianapolis Colts by 6 | 61 vs 41 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Miami Dolphins | Sun | MIN 24, MIA 16 | MIN -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 5 | 40 vs 45 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CIN 30, NO 26 | CIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1 | 56 vs 42.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@New York Giants | Sun | BAL 20, NYG 24 | BAL -5.5 | New York Giants by 9.5 | 44 vs 46 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | TB 18, PIT 20 | TB -10 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 | 38 vs 47 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | CAR 10, LA 24 | LA -10 | Los Angeles Rams by 4 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ARI 9, SEA 19 | ARI -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 12.5 | 28 vs 50 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 1.5 | 44 vs 54 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | DAL 17, PHI 26 | PHI -6.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 | 43 vs 42.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers | Mon | DEN 16, LAC 19 | LAC -3.5 | Denver Broncos by 0.5 | 35 vs 45.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 6, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.