Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (37.5%) and home teams 5-11 (31.2%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 26 points in DET @ NE. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts@Denver Broncos | Thu | IND 12, DEN 9 | DEN -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 6.5 | 21 vs 42 Under |
| New York Giants@Green Bay Packers | Sun | NYG 27, GB 22 | GB -8.5 | New York Giants by 13.5 | 49 vs 42 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF -14 | Buffalo Bills by 21 | 41 vs 44 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | LAC 30, CLE 28 | LAC -1 | Los Angeles Chargers by 1 | 58 vs 47 Over |
| Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | HOU 13, JAX 6 | JAX -7 | Houston Texans by 14 | 19 vs 44 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | CHI 22, MIN 29 | MIN -10 | Chicago Bears by 3 | 51 vs 44 Over |
| Detroit Lions@New England Patriots | Sun | DET 0, NE 29 | NE -3 | New England Patriots by 26 | 29 vs 46.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@New Orleans Saints | Sun | SEA 32, NO 39 | NO -5.5 | New Orleans Saints by 1.5 | 71 vs 45.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New York Jets | Sun | MIA 17, NYJ 40 | MIA -3 | New York Jets by 26 | 57 vs 46 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | ATL 15, TB 21 | TB -10.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 4.5 | 36 vs 46 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Washington Commanders | Sun | TEN 21, WAS 17 | TEN -1 | Tennessee Titans by 3 | 38 vs 43 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | SF 37, CAR 15 | SF -6 | San Francisco 49ers by 16 | 52 vs 40 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | PHI 20, ARI 17 | PHI -5.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 | 37 vs 48.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | DAL 22, LA 10 | LA -5.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 17.5 | 32 vs 42 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CIN 17, BAL 19 | BAL -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1 | 36 vs 47.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | LV 29, KC 30 | KC -7.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 59 vs 51.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 5, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.