Favorites went 7-8-1 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 8-7-1 (53.3%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: San Francisco 49ers beat the number by 14 points in LA @ SF. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins@Cincinnati Bengals | Thu | MIA 15, CIN 27 | CIN -4 | Cincinnati Bengals by 8 | 42 vs 48.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@New Orleans Saints | Sun | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN -4 | New Orleans Saints by 1 | 53 vs 42 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CLE 20, ATL 23 | CLE -1 | Atlanta Falcons by 4 | 43 vs 48 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | BUF 23, BAL 20 | BUF -3 | Push | 43 vs 50 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | WAS 10, DAL 25 | DAL -3 | Dallas Cowboys by 12 | 35 vs 40.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Detroit Lions | Sun | SEA 48, DET 45 | DET -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 6 | 93 vs 48.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Houston Texans | Sun | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC -5.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 4.5 | 58 vs 45 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TEN 24, IND 17 | IND -4.5 | Tennessee Titans by 11.5 | 41 vs 43 Under |
| Chicago Bears@New York Giants | Sun | CHI 12, NYG 20 | NYG -3 | New York Giants by 5 | 32 vs 39 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | JAX 21, PHI 29 | PHI -6.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1.5 | 50 vs 44 Over |
| New York Jets@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | NYJ 24, PIT 20 | PIT -3 | New York Jets by 7 | 44 vs 41 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ARI 26, CAR 16 | CAR -1 | Arizona Cardinals by 11 | 42 vs 44 Under |
| New England Patriots@Green Bay Packers | Sun | NE 24, GB 27 | GB -10 | New England Patriots by 7 | 51 vs 40.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | DEN 23, LV 32 | LV -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 55 vs 45.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | KC 41, TB 31 | TB -1 | Kansas City Chiefs by 11 | 72 vs 46.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | LA 9, SF 24 | SF -1 | San Francisco 49ers by 14 | 33 vs 42 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 4, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.