Favorites went 5-10-1 against the spread (33.3%) and home teams 6-9-1 (40.0%). 9 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 34.5 points in JAX @ LAC. Games finished 7 over and 8 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns | Thu | PIT 17, CLE 29 | CLE -4.5 | Cleveland Browns by 7.5 | 46 vs 38 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NO 14, CAR 22 | NO -2 | Carolina Panthers by 10 | 36 vs 41 Under |
| Houston Texans@Chicago Bears | Sun | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI -3 | Push | 43 vs 40 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | KC 17, IND 20 | KC -4.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 7.5 | 37 vs 51 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins | Sun | BUF 19, MIA 21 | BUF -4 | Miami Dolphins by 6 | 40 vs 54 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DET 24, MIN 28 | MIN -6.5 | Detroit Lions by 2.5 | 52 vs 52 Push |
| Baltimore Ravens@New England Patriots | Sun | BAL 37, NE 26 | BAL -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 8.5 | 63 vs 45.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@New York Jets | Sun | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN -6.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 8.5 | 39 vs 46 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Tennessee Titans | Sun | LV 22, TEN 24 | LV -1.5 | Tennessee Titans by 3.5 | 46 vs 45.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders | Sun | PHI 24, WAS 8 | PHI -6 | Philadelphia Eagles by 10 | 32 vs 47 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | JAX 38, LAC 10 | LAC -6.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 34.5 | 48 vs 46 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | LA 20, ARI 12 | LA -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 4.5 | 32 vs 49 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ATL 27, SEA 23 | SEA -1 | Atlanta Falcons by 5 | 50 vs 43 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | GB 14, TB 12 | TB -1 | Green Bay Packers by 3 | 26 vs 41.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Denver Broncos | Sun | SF 10, DEN 11 | SF -1 | Denver Broncos by 2 | 21 vs 44 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Mon | DAL 23, NYG 16 | NYG -1 | Dallas Cowboys by 8 | 39 vs 38.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.