Favorites went 5-10-1 against the spread (33.3%) and home teams 8-7-1 (53.3%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 27 points in IND @ JAX. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs | Thu | LAC 24, KC 27 | KC -4 | Los Angeles Chargers by 1 | 51 vs 52.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | MIA 42, BAL 38 | BAL -3 | Miami Dolphins by 7 | 80 vs 44 Over |
| New York Jets@Cleveland Browns | Sun | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE -6.5 | New York Jets by 7.5 | 61 vs 38.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Detroit Lions | Sun | WAS 27, DET 36 | WAS -1 | Detroit Lions by 10 | 63 vs 48.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | IND 0, JAX 24 | IND -3 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 | 24 vs 43.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TB 20, NO 10 | TB -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7.5 | 30 vs 44 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@New York Giants | Sun | CAR 16, NYG 19 | CAR -1 | New York Giants by 4 | 35 vs 44 Under |
| New England Patriots@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | NE 17, PIT 14 | NE -3 | Push | 31 vs 40 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | ATL 27, LA 31 | LA -10.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 6.5 | 58 vs 46.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | SEA 7, SF 27 | SF -8.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 11.5 | 34 vs 40 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | CIN 17, DAL 20 | CIN -7.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 10.5 | 37 vs 42 Under |
| Houston Texans@Denver Broncos | Sun | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN -10.5 | Houston Texans by 3.5 | 25 vs 46 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | ARI 29, LV 23 | LV -5.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 11.5 | 52 vs 51.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CHI 10, GB 27 | GB -10.5 | Green Bay Packers by 6.5 | 37 vs 42 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Buffalo Bills | Mon | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF -10 | Buffalo Bills by 24 | 48 vs 47.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Philadelphia Eagles | Mon | MIN 7, PHI 24 | PHI -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 14.5 | 31 vs 49.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.