Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 20 points in BUF @ LA. Games finished 5 over and 11 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF -1 | Buffalo Bills by 20 | 41 vs 51.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NO 27, ATL 26 | NO -6 | Atlanta Falcons by 5 | 53 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Carolina Panthers | Sun | CLE 26, CAR 24 | CAR -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 4.5 | 50 vs 42.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Chicago Bears | Sun | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF -6.5 | Chicago Bears by 15.5 | 29 vs 38 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | PIT 23, CIN 20 | CIN -7.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 43 vs 44.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Detroit Lions | Sun | PHI 38, DET 35 | PHI -6 | Detroit Lions by 3 | 73 vs 49 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans | Sun | IND 20, HOU 20 | IND -7 | Houston Texans by 7 | 40 vs 46 Under |
| New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NE 7, MIA 20 | MIA -3 | Miami Dolphins by 10 | 27 vs 47 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@New York Jets | Sun | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | BAL -6.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 8.5 | 33 vs 44 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Washington Commanders | Sun | JAX 22, WAS 28 | WAS -3 | Washington Commanders by 3 | 50 vs 43.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | KC 44, ARI 21 | KC -6 | Kansas City Chiefs by 17 | 65 vs 54 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LV 19, LAC 24 | LAC -3.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 1.5 | 43 vs 52.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 7, MIN 23 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 13.5 | 30 vs 47 Under |
| New York Giants@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NYG 21, TEN 20 | TEN -5.5 | New York Giants by 6.5 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13.5 | 22 vs 49.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Seattle Seahawks | Mon | DEN 16, SEA 17 | DEN -6 | Seattle Seahawks by 7 | 33 vs 44 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.