Favorites went 7-7 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 7-7 (50.0%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Carolina Panthers beat the number by 31 points in TB @ CAR. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints@Arizona Cardinals | Thu | NO 34, ARI 42 | ARI -2.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 5.5 | 76 vs 44 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CLE 20, BAL 23 | BAL -6.5 | Cleveland Browns by 3.5 | 43 vs 46 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | TB 3, CAR 21 | TB -13 | Carolina Panthers by 31 | 24 vs 39.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | ATL 17, CIN 35 | CIN -6.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 11.5 | 52 vs 47.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL -7 | Dallas Cowboys by 11 | 30 vs 49.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | NYG 23, JAX 17 | JAX -3 | New York Giants by 9 | 40 vs 44 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans | Sun | IND 10, TEN 19 | TEN -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 6.5 | 29 vs 43 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Washington Commanders | Sun | GB 21, WAS 23 | GB -4 | Washington Commanders by 6 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Denver Broncos | Sun | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ -2 | New York Jets by 5 | 25 vs 37 Under |
| Houston Texans@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | HOU 20, LV 38 | LV -7 | Las Vegas Raiders by 11 | 58 vs 46 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | SEA 37, LAC 23 | LAC -5.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 19.5 | 60 vs 51.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | KC 44, SF 23 | KC -1 | Kansas City Chiefs by 20 | 67 vs 49 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | PIT 10, MIA 16 | MIA -7.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 1.5 | 26 vs 44.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@New England Patriots | Mon | CHI 33, NE 14 | NE -9.5 | Chicago Bears by 28.5 | 47 vs 40 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 7, 2022 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.