Favorites went 4-10-1 against the spread (28.6%) and home teams 5-9-1 (35.7%). 8 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Philadelphia Eagles beat the number by 35 points in PHI @ DET. Games finished 7 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers@Arizona Cardinals | Thu | GB 24, ARI 21 | ARI -6.5 | Green Bay Packers by 9.5 | 45 vs 51 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CAR 19, ATL 13 | ATL -2.5 | Carolina Panthers by 8.5 | 32 vs 47 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills | Sun | MIA 11, BUF 26 | BUF -15 | Push | 37 vs 48.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Chicago Bears | Sun | SF 33, CHI 22 | SF -4.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 6.5 | 55 vs 40 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | PIT 15, CLE 10 | CLE -5.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 25 vs 43 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Detroit Lions | Sun | PHI 44, DET 6 | PHI -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 35 | 50 vs 48.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Houston Texans | Sun | LA 38, HOU 22 | LA -17 | Houston Texans by 1 | 60 vs 47 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TEN 34, IND 31 | IND -3 | Tennessee Titans by 6 | 65 vs 51 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@New York Jets | Sun | CIN 31, NYJ 34 | CIN -11.5 | New York Jets by 14.5 | 65 vs 43.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC -3.5 | New England Patriots by 6.5 | 51 vs 50.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | JAX 7, SEA 31 | SEA -4 | Seattle Seahawks by 20 | 38 vs 44 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Denver Broncos | Sun | WAS 10, DEN 17 | DEN -4 | Denver Broncos by 3 | 27 vs 45 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TB 27, NO 36 | TB -4 | New Orleans Saints by 13 | 63 vs 48.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DAL 20, MIN 16 | MIN -4.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 8.5 | 36 vs 49.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | NYG 17, KC 20 | KC -10.5 | New York Giants by 7.5 | 37 vs 53 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 8, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.