Favorites went 7-6 against the spread (53.8%) and home teams 9-4 (69.2%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 34 points in NYJ @ NE. Games finished 5 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos@Cleveland Browns | Thu | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE -2 | Cleveland Browns by 1 | 31 vs 40.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CIN 41, BAL 17 | BAL -6.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 30.5 | 58 vs 45.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Green Bay Packers | Sun | WAS 10, GB 24 | GB -8.5 | Green Bay Packers by 5.5 | 34 vs 48 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Miami Dolphins | Sun | ATL 30, MIA 28 | ATL -1.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 0.5 | 58 vs 48.5 Over |
| New York Jets@New England Patriots | Sun | NYJ 13, NE 54 | NE -7 | New England Patriots by 34 | 67 vs 43 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@New York Giants | Sun | CAR 3, NYG 25 | CAR -3 | New York Giants by 25 | 28 vs 42.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Tennessee Titans | Sun | KC 3, TEN 27 | KC -4 | Tennessee Titans by 28 | 30 vs 57.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | DET 19, LA 28 | LA -17 | Detroit Lions by 8 | 47 vs 51 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | PHI 22, LV 33 | LV -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 10 | 55 vs 48 Over |
| Houston Texans@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI -20.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 5.5 | 36 vs 47 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB -12.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22.5 | 41 vs 47 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | IND 30, SF 18 | SF -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 15.5 | 48 vs 41.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Seattle Seahawks | Mon | NO 13, SEA 10 | NO -6 | Seattle Seahawks by 3 | 23 vs 42 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 7, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.