Favorites went 8-6 against the spread (57.1%) and home teams 5-9 (35.7%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Arizona Cardinals beat the number by 26 points in ARI @ CLE. Games finished 5 over and 8 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Philadelphia Eagles | Thu | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB -7 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1 | 50 vs 53 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 5.5 | 43 vs 47.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 25 | 40 vs 50.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Carolina Panthers | Sun | MIN 34, CAR 28 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 3.5 | 62 vs 45.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears | Sun | GB 24, CHI 14 | GB -5.5 | Green Bay Packers by 4.5 | 38 vs 44 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Detroit Lions | Sun | CIN 34, DET 11 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 19.5 | 45 vs 46.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | HOU 3, IND 31 | IND -10.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 17.5 | 34 vs 43.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@New York Giants | Sun | LA 38, NYG 11 | LA -7.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 19.5 | 49 vs 49.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Washington Commanders | Sun | KC 31, WAS 13 | KC -6 | Kansas City Chiefs by 12 | 44 vs 54 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | ARI 37, CLE 14 | CLE -3 | Arizona Cardinals by 26 | 51 vs 48 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Denver Broncos | Sun | LV 34, DEN 24 | DEN -5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 15 | 58 vs 45.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@New England Patriots | Sun | DAL 35, NE 29 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 2.5 | 64 vs 50.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | SEA 20, PIT 23 | PIT -5.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 2.5 | 43 vs 43 Push |
| Buffalo Bills@Tennessee Titans | Mon | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF -6 | Tennessee Titans by 9 | 65 vs 53.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 6, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.