Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 20.5 points in BUF @ KC. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams@Seattle Seahawks | Thu | LA 26, SEA 17 | LA -2.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 6.5 | 43 vs 53.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NYJ 20, ATL 27 | ATL -3 | Atlanta Falcons by 4 | 47 vs 45.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Carolina Panthers | Sun | PHI 21, CAR 18 | CAR -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 5.5 | 39 vs 46 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | GB 25, CIN 22 | GB -2 | Green Bay Packers by 1 | 47 vs 50 Under |
| New England Patriots@Houston Texans | Sun | NE 25, HOU 22 | NE -8 | Houston Texans by 5 | 47 vs 39.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | TEN 37, JAX 19 | TEN -4 | Tennessee Titans by 14 | 56 vs 49 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DET 17, MIN 19 | MIN -10 | Detroit Lions by 8 | 36 vs 49.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN -2 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 | 46 vs 40 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | MIA 17, TB 45 | TB -11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 | 62 vs 48 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Washington Commanders | Sun | NO 33, WAS 22 | NO -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 8.5 | 55 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | CLE 42, LAC 47 | LAC -2.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 2.5 | 89 vs 46.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CHI 20, LV 9 | LV -5.5 | Chicago Bears by 16.5 | 29 vs 46 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SF 10, ARI 17 | ARI -6 | Arizona Cardinals by 1 | 27 vs 48.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NYG 20, DAL 44 | DAL -7.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 16.5 | 64 vs 53 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | BUF 38, KC 20 | KC -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 20.5 | 58 vs 57 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Baltimore Ravens | Mon | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL -7.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 1.5 | 56 vs 46.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 5, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.