Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 21 points in HOU @ BUF. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Cincinnati Bengals | Thu | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN -7.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 4.5 | 45 vs 46 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS -1 | Washington Commanders by 3 | 64 vs 47.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Buffalo Bills | Sun | HOU 0, BUF 40 | BUF -19 | Buffalo Bills by 21 | 40 vs 47.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears | Sun | DET 14, CHI 24 | CHI -3 | Chicago Bears by 7 | 38 vs 42 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | CAR 28, DAL 36 | DAL -4.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 3.5 | 64 vs 51.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Miami Dolphins | Sun | IND 27, MIA 17 | MIA -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 12.5 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | CLE 14, MIN 7 | CLE -1 | Cleveland Browns by 6 | 21 vs 52 Under |
| New York Giants@New Orleans Saints | Sun | NYG 27, NO 21 | NO -7.5 | New York Giants by 13.5 | 48 vs 43 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@New York Jets | Sun | TEN 24, NYJ 27 | TEN -5.5 | New York Jets by 8.5 | 51 vs 44.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC -7.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5 | 72 vs 53.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | ARI 37, LA 20 | LA -3.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 20.5 | 57 vs 53.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | SEA 28, SF 21 | SF -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 9.5 | 49 vs 52 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Denver Broncos | Sun | BAL 23, DEN 7 | DEN -1 | Baltimore Ravens by 17 | 30 vs 44 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Green Bay Packers | Sun | PIT 17, GB 27 | GB -6.5 | Green Bay Packers by 3.5 | 44 vs 45 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New England Patriots | Sun | TB 19, NE 17 | TB -6 | New England Patriots by 4 | 36 vs 49.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Mon | LV 14, LAC 28 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 11 | 42 vs 52 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 4, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.