Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New Orleans Saints beat the number by 18 points in NO @ NE. Games finished 5 over and 11 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers@Houston Texans | Thu | CAR 24, HOU 9 | CAR -8 | Carolina Panthers by 7 | 33 vs 43 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Buffalo Bills | Sun | WAS 21, BUF 43 | BUF -7.5 | Buffalo Bills by 14.5 | 64 vs 45.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CHI 6, CLE 26 | CLE -7.5 | Cleveland Browns by 12.5 | 32 vs 45 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Detroit Lions | Sun | BAL 19, DET 17 | BAL -7.5 | Detroit Lions by 5.5 | 36 vs 51 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | ARI 31, JAX 19 | ARI -8 | Arizona Cardinals by 4 | 50 vs 51.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LAC 30, KC 24 | KC -6.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 12.5 | 54 vs 55 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@New England Patriots | Sun | NO 28, NE 13 | NE -3 | New Orleans Saints by 18 | 41 vs 44 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New York Giants | Sun | ATL 17, NYG 14 | NYG -3 | Atlanta Falcons by 6 | 31 vs 48 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CIN 24, PIT 10 | PIT -2.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 16.5 | 34 vs 42.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans | Sun | IND 16, TEN 25 | TEN -4.5 | Tennessee Titans by 4.5 | 41 vs 47 Under |
| New York Jets@Denver Broncos | Sun | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN -10.5 | Denver Broncos by 15.5 | 26 vs 42 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV -4 | Miami Dolphins by 1 | 59 vs 45 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | TB 24, LA 34 | TB -1 | Los Angeles Rams by 11 | 58 vs 55 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | SEA 17, MIN 30 | SEA -2 | Minnesota Vikings by 15 | 47 vs 53.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | GB 30, SF 28 | SF -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 5.5 | 58 vs 50.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys | Mon | PHI 21, DAL 41 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 16.5 | 62 vs 51.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.