Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 6-10 (37.5%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 31.5 points in BUF @ MIA. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants@Washington Commanders | Thu | NYG 29, WAS 30 | WAS -4 | New York Giants by 3 | 59 vs 42 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NO 7, CAR 26 | NO -3 | Carolina Panthers by 22 | 33 vs 45 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Chicago Bears | Sun | CIN 17, CHI 20 | CHI -2 | Chicago Bears by 1 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Cleveland Browns | Sun | HOU 21, CLE 31 | CLE -13.5 | Houston Texans by 3.5 | 52 vs 48.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | LA 27, IND 24 | LA -4 | Indianapolis Colts by 1 | 51 vs 48 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN -6 | Denver Broncos by 4 | 36 vs 45 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins | Sun | BUF 35, MIA 0 | BUF -3.5 | Buffalo Bills by 31.5 | 35 vs 48 Under |
| New England Patriots@New York Jets | Sun | NE 25, NYJ 6 | NE -5.5 | New England Patriots by 13.5 | 31 vs 43 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | SF 17, PHI 11 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 3 | 28 vs 49 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT -5.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 14.5 | 43 vs 46.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | MIN 33, ARI 34 | ARI -4 | Minnesota Vikings by 3 | 67 vs 51 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | ATL 25, TB 48 | TB -13.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9.5 | 73 vs 52 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | DAL 20, LAC 17 | LAC -3 | Dallas Cowboys by 6 | 37 vs 55 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | TEN 33, SEA 30 | SEA -6.5 | Tennessee Titans by 9.5 | 63 vs 53.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC -3.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 4.5 | 71 vs 53.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers | Mon | DET 17, GB 35 | GB -11.5 | Green Bay Packers by 6.5 | 52 vs 49.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.