Favorites went 4-12 against the spread (25.0%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 9 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New Orleans Saints beat the number by 39 points in GB @ NO. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Thu | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB -10 | Dallas Cowboys by 8 | 60 vs 52.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | PHI 32, ATL 6 | ATL -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 29.5 | 38 vs 49 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF -6.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 13.5 | 39 vs 48 Under |
| New York Jets@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NYJ 14, CAR 19 | CAR -3.5 | Carolina Panthers by 1.5 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | MIN 24, CIN 27 | MIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 6 | 51 vs 47 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Detroit Lions | Sun | SF 41, DET 33 | SF -9.5 | Detroit Lions by 1.5 | 74 vs 46 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans | Sun | JAX 21, HOU 37 | JAX -3.5 | Houston Texans by 19.5 | 58 vs 45.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | SEA 28, IND 16 | SEA -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 9 | 44 vs 49 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Tennessee Titans | Sun | ARI 38, TEN 13 | TEN -2.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 27.5 | 51 vs 54 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Washington Commanders | Sun | LAC 20, WAS 16 | WAS -2.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 6.5 | 36 vs 45.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | CLE 29, KC 33 | KC -5.5 | Cleveland Browns by 1.5 | 62 vs 54.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots | Sun | MIA 17, NE 16 | NE -3.5 | Miami Dolphins by 4.5 | 33 vs 43.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | GB 3, NO 38 | GB -4 | New Orleans Saints by 39 | 41 vs 49 Under |
| Denver Broncos@New York Giants | Sun | DEN 27, NYG 13 | DEN -3 | Denver Broncos by 11 | 40 vs 41.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | CHI 14, LA 34 | LA -9.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 10.5 | 48 vs 46 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Las Vegas Raiders | Mon | BAL 27, LV 33 | BAL -3 | Las Vegas Raiders by 9 | 60 vs 50.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.