Favorites went 4-10 against the spread (28.6%) and home teams 4-10 (28.6%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Cleveland Browns beat the number by 27.5 points in CLE @ CIN. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets@Indianapolis Colts | Thu | NYJ 30, IND 45 | IND -10.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 4.5 | 75 vs 46 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | MIN 31, BAL 34 | BAL -7.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 4.5 | 65 vs 51 Over |
| New England Patriots@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NE 24, CAR 6 | NE -3.5 | New England Patriots by 14.5 | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CLE 41, CIN 16 | CIN -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 27.5 | 57 vs 47.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | DEN 30, DAL 16 | DAL -10.5 | Denver Broncos by 24.5 | 46 vs 50 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | BUF 6, JAX 9 | BUF -14.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 17.5 | 15 vs 48 Under |
| Houston Texans@Miami Dolphins | Sun | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA -4 | Miami Dolphins by 4 | 26 vs 45 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ATL 27, NO 25 | NO -7 | Atlanta Falcons by 9 | 52 vs 43 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@New York Giants | Sun | LV 16, NYG 23 | LV -3 | New York Giants by 10 | 39 vs 47 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | LAC 27, PHI 24 | LAC -1 | Los Angeles Chargers by 2 | 51 vs 49.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | GB 7, KC 13 | KC -7 | Green Bay Packers by 1 | 20 vs 48 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 31, SF 17 | SF -5.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 19.5 | 48 vs 44.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | TEN 28, LA 16 | LA -7 | Tennessee Titans by 19 | 44 vs 53.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon | CHI 27, PIT 29 | PIT -7 | Chicago Bears by 5 | 56 vs 40 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 9, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.