Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 6-8 (42.9%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 35.5 points in CLE @ NE. Games finished 4 over and 9 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens@Miami Dolphins | Thu | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL -8.5 | Miami Dolphins by 20.5 | 32 vs 46.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | ATL 3, DAL 43 | DAL -8 | Dallas Cowboys by 32 | 46 vs 55 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | JAX 17, IND 23 | IND -10.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 4.5 | 40 vs 47.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@New England Patriots | Sun | CLE 7, NE 45 | NE -2.5 | New England Patriots by 35.5 | 52 vs 45.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New York Jets | Sun | BUF 45, NYJ 17 | BUF -13 | Buffalo Bills by 15 | 62 vs 47 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | DET 16, PIT 16 | PIT -9 | Detroit Lions by 9 | 32 vs 43 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN -3 | New Orleans Saints by 1 | 44 vs 44 Push |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Washington Commanders | Sun | TB 19, WAS 29 | TB -10 | Washington Commanders by 20 | 48 vs 51 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI -7 | Carolina Panthers by 31 | 44 vs 42 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | MIN 27, LAC 20 | LAC -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 10 | 47 vs 53.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Denver Broncos | Sun | PHI 30, DEN 13 | DEN -1 | Philadelphia Eagles by 18 | 43 vs 44.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Green Bay Packers | Sun | SEA 0, GB 17 | GB -3 | Green Bay Packers by 14 | 17 vs 49.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | KC 41, LV 14 | KC -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 24.5 | 55 vs 53.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | LA 10, SF 31 | LA -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 24.5 | 41 vs 50 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 10, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.