Favorites went 7-8 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 5-10 (33.3%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Indianapolis Colts beat the number by 33.5 points in IND @ BUF. Games finished 5 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots@Atlanta Falcons | Thu | NE 25, ATL 0 | NE -7 | New England Patriots by 18 | 25 vs 47.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Buffalo Bills | Sun | IND 41, BUF 15 | BUF -7.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 33.5 | 56 vs 49.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Carolina Panthers | Sun | WAS 27, CAR 21 | CAR -3.5 | Washington Commanders by 9.5 | 48 vs 43 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Chicago Bears | Sun | BAL 16, CHI 13 | BAL -5 | Chicago Bears by 2 | 29 vs 43 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Cleveland Browns | Sun | DET 10, CLE 13 | CLE -13 | Detroit Lions by 10 | 23 vs 42.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF -6.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 13.5 | 40 vs 45 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 31, MIN 34 | GB -1 | Minnesota Vikings by 4 | 65 vs 48 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New York Jets | Sun | MIA 24, NYJ 17 | MIA -3.5 | Miami Dolphins by 3.5 | 41 vs 44.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NO 29, PHI 40 | PHI -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 8.5 | 69 vs 42.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Tennessee Titans | Sun | HOU 22, TEN 13 | TEN -10.5 | Houston Texans by 19.5 | 35 vs 44.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CIN 32, LV 13 | CIN -1 | Cincinnati Bengals by 18 | 45 vs 50.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | DAL 9, KC 19 | KC -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 7.5 | 28 vs 56 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ARI 23, SEA 13 | SEA -2.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 12.5 | 36 vs 46 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | PIT 37, LAC 41 | LAC -5.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 1.5 | 78 vs 47.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mon | NYG 10, TB 30 | TB -11.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8.5 | 40 vs 49.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 11, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.