Favorites went 7-7-1 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 9-5-1 (64.3%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Cincinnati Bengals beat the number by 27.5 points in PIT @ CIN. Games finished 7 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions | Thu | CHI 16, DET 14 | CHI -2 | Push | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | LV 36, DAL 33 | DAL -7 | Las Vegas Raiders by 10 | 69 vs 51 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New Orleans Saints | Thu | BUF 31, NO 6 | BUF -7 | Buffalo Bills by 18 | 37 vs 45 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | PIT 10, CIN 41 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 27.5 | 51 vs 43.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Houston Texans | Sun | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU -3 | New York Jets by 10 | 35 vs 44.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TB 38, IND 31 | TB -3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 | 69 vs 53 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | ATL 21, JAX 14 | ATL -1.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 5.5 | 35 vs 46 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | CAR 10, MIA 33 | CAR -1 | Miami Dolphins by 24 | 43 vs 41 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@New England Patriots | Sun | TEN 13, NE 36 | NE -7.5 | New England Patriots by 15.5 | 49 vs 43 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants | Sun | PHI 7, NYG 13 | PHI -4 | New York Giants by 10 | 20 vs 45.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos | Sun | LAC 13, DEN 28 | LAC -2.5 | Denver Broncos by 17.5 | 41 vs 47.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Green Bay Packers | Sun | LA 28, GB 36 | LA -2 | Green Bay Packers by 10 | 64 vs 47 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | MIN 26, SF 34 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 4.5 | 60 vs 49 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CLE 10, BAL 16 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 3 | 26 vs 47 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Washington Commanders | Mon | SEA 15, WAS 17 | SEA -1 | Washington Commanders by 3 | 32 vs 47 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 12, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.