Favorites went 8-6 against the spread (57.1%) and home teams 6-8 (42.9%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Los Angeles Chargers beat the number by 21.5 points in LAC @ CIN. Games finished 5 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@New Orleans Saints | Thu | DAL 27, NO 17 | DAL -6 | Dallas Cowboys by 4 | 44 vs 46 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | TB 30, ATL 17 | TB -11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 | 47 vs 51 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Chicago Bears | Sun | ARI 33, CHI 22 | ARI -7.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 3.5 | 55 vs 43.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | LAC 41, CIN 22 | CIN -2.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 21.5 | 63 vs 49.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions | Sun | MIN 27, DET 29 | MIN -7 | Detroit Lions by 9 | 56 vs 47.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans | Sun | IND 31, HOU 0 | IND -10 | Indianapolis Colts by 21 | 31 vs 45.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYG 9, MIA 20 | MIA -6.5 | Miami Dolphins by 4.5 | 29 vs 40 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Jets | Sun | PHI 33, NYJ 18 | PHI -5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 10 | 51 vs 44 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | JAX 7, LA 37 | LA -14 | Los Angeles Rams by 16 | 44 vs 48 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | WAS 17, LV 15 | LV -1 | Washington Commanders by 3 | 32 vs 47.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BAL 19, PIT 20 | BAL -4 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 | 39 vs 44 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | SF 23, SEA 30 | SF -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 10 | 53 vs 44.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | DEN 9, KC 22 | KC -8.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5 | 31 vs 46.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Mon | NE 14, BUF 10 | BUF -3 | New England Patriots by 7 | 24 vs 40 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 13, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.