Favorites went 11-3 against the spread (78.6%) and home teams 7-7 (50.0%). 2 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Kansas City Chiefs beat the number by 29 points in LV @ KC. Games finished 10 over and 3 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Minnesota Vikings | Thu | PIT 28, MIN 36 | MIN -3.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 4.5 | 64 vs 45 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ATL 29, CAR 21 | CAR -2.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 10.5 | 50 vs 41 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns | Sun | BAL 22, CLE 24 | CLE -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 1 | 46 vs 44 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Houston Texans | Sun | SEA 33, HOU 13 | SEA -10 | Seattle Seahawks by 10 | 46 vs 40.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LV 9, KC 48 | KC -10 | Kansas City Chiefs by 29 | 57 vs 48 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@New York Jets | Sun | NO 30, NYJ 9 | NO -4.5 | New Orleans Saints by 16.5 | 39 vs 42 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans | Sun | JAX 0, TEN 20 | TEN -8.5 | Tennessee Titans by 11.5 | 20 vs 44.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Washington Commanders | Sun | DAL 27, WAS 20 | DAL -6.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 0.5 | 47 vs 48 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Denver Broncos | Sun | DET 10, DEN 38 | DEN -13 | Denver Broncos by 15 | 48 vs 42 Over |
| New York Giants@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | NYG 21, LAC 37 | LAC -9.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 6.5 | 58 vs 44 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | SF 26, CIN 23 | SF -2.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 0.5 | 49 vs 49 Push |
| Buffalo Bills@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | BUF 27, TB 33 | TB -3.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.5 | 60 vs 52.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CHI 30, GB 45 | GB -11.5 | Green Bay Packers by 3.5 | 75 vs 43 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Arizona Cardinals | Mon | LA 30, ARI 23 | ARI -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 10 | 53 vs 51 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 14, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.