Favorites went 7-8-1 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 8-7-1 (53.3%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 31 points in ARI @ DET. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers | Thu | KC 34, LAC 28 | KC -3 | Kansas City Chiefs by 3 | 62 vs 54 Over |
| New England Patriots@Indianapolis Colts | Sat | NE 17, IND 27 | NE -1 | Indianapolis Colts by 11 | 44 vs 46 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | CAR 14, BUF 31 | BUF -14 | Buffalo Bills by 3 | 45 vs 43 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Detroit Lions | Sun | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI -13 | Detroit Lions by 31 | 42 vs 48 Under |
| Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | HOU 30, JAX 16 | JAX -6 | Houston Texans by 20 | 46 vs 40 Over |
| New York Jets@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYJ 24, MIA 31 | MIA -10.5 | New York Jets by 3.5 | 55 vs 42 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Sun | DAL 21, NYG 6 | DAL -11.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 3.5 | 27 vs 43 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | TEN 13, PIT 19 | PIT -1 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 | 32 vs 44 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Denver Broncos | Sun | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 8 | 25 vs 45 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ATL 13, SF 31 | SF -9.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 8.5 | 44 vs 48 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | GB 31, BAL 30 | GB -9.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 8.5 | 61 vs 45.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NO 9, TB 0 | TB -11.5 | New Orleans Saints by 20.5 | 9 vs 45.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Cleveland Browns | Mon | LV 16, CLE 14 | LV -3 | Cleveland Browns by 1 | 30 vs 41 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Mon | MIN 17, CHI 9 | MIN -7 | Minnesota Vikings by 1 | 26 vs 48 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams | Tue | SEA 10, LA 20 | LA -7.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 | 30 vs 47 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Tue | WAS 17, PHI 27 | PHI -10 | Push | 44 vs 39.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 15, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.