Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Dallas Cowboys beat the number by 31.5 points in WAS @ DAL. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers@Tennessee Titans | Thu | SF 17, TEN 20 | SF -3.5 | Tennessee Titans by 6.5 | 37 vs 45.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Green Bay Packers | Sat | CLE 22, GB 24 | GB -7.5 | Cleveland Browns by 5.5 | 46 vs 46.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Arizona Cardinals | Sat | IND 22, ARI 16 | ARI -3 | Indianapolis Colts by 9 | 38 vs 48 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | DET 16, ATL 20 | ATL -7.5 | Detroit Lions by 3.5 | 36 vs 42.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | TB 32, CAR 6 | TB -11.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14.5 | 38 vs 44.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BAL 21, CIN 41 | CIN -7.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 12.5 | 62 vs 43 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Houston Texans | Sun | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC -13.5 | Houston Texans by 25.5 | 70 vs 46 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | LA 30, MIN 23 | LA -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 3.5 | 53 vs 48.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots | Sun | BUF 33, NE 21 | NE -1 | Buffalo Bills by 13 | 54 vs 43.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@New York Jets | Sun | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ -2.5 | New York Jets by 2.5 | 47 vs 42.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NYG 10, PHI 34 | PHI -11 | Philadelphia Eagles by 13 | 44 vs 41 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | CHI 25, SEA 24 | SEA -7 | Chicago Bears by 8 | 49 vs 41 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | PIT 10, KC 36 | KC -10.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 15.5 | 46 vs 44 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | DEN 13, LV 17 | DEN -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 5 | 30 vs 42 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | WAS 14, DAL 56 | DAL -10.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 31.5 | 70 vs 45.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New Orleans Saints | Mon | MIA 20, NO 3 | MIA -3 | Miami Dolphins by 14 | 23 vs 37.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 16, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.