Favorites went 8-7-1 against the spread (53.3%) and home teams 13-2-1 (86.7%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Tennessee Titans beat the number by 28 points in MIA @ TEN. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | LA 20, BAL 19 | LA -7 | Baltimore Ravens by 6 | 39 vs 47 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Buffalo Bills | Sun | ATL 15, BUF 29 | BUF -14 | Push | 44 vs 46.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Chicago Bears | Sun | NYG 3, CHI 29 | CHI -7 | Chicago Bears by 19 | 32 vs 36.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 6.5 | 65 vs 51 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | LV 23, IND 20 | IND -8.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 11.5 | 43 vs 46.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@New England Patriots | Sun | JAX 10, NE 50 | NE -17.5 | New England Patriots by 22.5 | 60 vs 42 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York Jets | Sun | TB 28, NYJ 24 | TB -14.5 | New York Jets by 10.5 | 52 vs 48 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Tennessee Titans | Sun | MIA 3, TEN 34 | TEN -3 | Tennessee Titans by 28 | 37 vs 41 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders | Sun | PHI 20, WAS 16 | PHI -6.5 | Washington Commanders by 2.5 | 36 vs 44.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | DEN 13, LAC 34 | LAC -8 | Los Angeles Chargers by 13 | 47 vs 45.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | HOU 7, SF 23 | SF -14 | San Francisco 49ers by 2 | 30 vs 44 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | ARI 25, DAL 22 | DAL -6.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 9.5 | 47 vs 53 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CAR 10, NO 18 | NO -7 | New Orleans Saints by 1 | 28 vs 37 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | DET 29, SEA 51 | SEA -8.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 13.5 | 80 vs 41.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Green Bay Packers | Sun | MIN 10, GB 37 | GB -13 | Green Bay Packers by 14 | 47 vs 42 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon | CLE 14, PIT 26 | CLE -1 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 | 40 vs 43.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 17, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.