Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (37.5%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 29 points in IND @ JAX. Games finished 11 over and 5 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos | Sat | KC 28, DEN 24 | KC -11.5 | Denver Broncos by 7.5 | 52 vs 44.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles | Sat | DAL 51, PHI 26 | DAL -6.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 18.5 | 77 vs 46 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | PIT 16, BAL 13 | BAL -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 | 29 vs 41 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CIN 16, CLE 21 | CLE -6.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1.5 | 37 vs 38 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions | Sun | GB 30, DET 37 | GB -4 | Detroit Lions by 11 | 67 vs 45 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans | Sun | TEN 28, HOU 25 | TEN -10.5 | Houston Texans by 7.5 | 53 vs 43 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | IND 11, JAX 26 | IND -14 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 | 37 vs 43 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | CHI 17, MIN 31 | MIN -3.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 10.5 | 48 vs 45.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New York Giants | Sun | WAS 22, NYG 7 | WAS -6 | Washington Commanders by 9 | 29 vs 36 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SEA 38, ARI 30 | ARI -5.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 13.5 | 68 vs 48 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NO 30, ATL 20 | NO -4.5 | New Orleans Saints by 5.5 | 50 vs 40 Over |
| New York Jets@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYJ 10, BUF 27 | BUF -16 | Buffalo Bills by 1 | 37 vs 43 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SF 27, LA 24 | LA -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 6 | 51 vs 46.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NE 24, MIA 33 | NE -6 | Miami Dolphins by 15 | 57 vs 41 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CAR 17, TB 41 | TB -11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 | 58 vs 43 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | LAC 32, LV 35 | LAC -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 67 vs 48 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 18, 2021 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.