New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Highmark Stadium. Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The line: BUF -7; total 48.5. Line as of Oct 2. This season the Patriots are 2-1 against the spread and the Bills 3-0.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
The last column is the Patriots on the road and the Bills at home.
| Team | 2026 | 2025 | Since 2021 | Away / home since 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 2-1 (66.7%) | 12-5 (70.6%) | 43-42-3 (50.6%) | 24-17-2 (58.5%) |
| Buffalo Bills | 3-0 (100.0%) | 8-9 (47.1%) | 45-39-3 (53.6%) | 22-19-2 (53.7%) |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Spread | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF @ NE | BUF 35, NE 31 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 1.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | NE @ BUF | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF -7.5 | New England Patriots by 10.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | BUF @ NE | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF -3 | New England Patriots by 10 |
| 2024-12-22 | NE @ BUF | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF -14 | New England Patriots by 11 |
| 2023-12-31 | NE @ BUF | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF -15 | New England Patriots by 9 |
| 2023-10-22 | BUF @ NE | BUF 25, NE 29 | BUF -7.5 | New England Patriots by 11.5 |
Implied points come from the game's total and spread: the favorite gets (total + spread) / 2 and the underdog (total - spread) / 2. This is context, not a prediction.
| Team | Implied points | Points per game this season | Points allowed per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 20.8 | 12.0 (3 games) | 17.0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 27.8 | 33.7 (3 games) | 26.0 |
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ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
All Week 4 games · ATS standings · New England Patriots ATS record · Buffalo Bills ATS record
This page shows history and the posted line only. It is not a prediction.
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Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.