New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium. Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET. The line: NE -7.5; total 44.5. Line as of Oct 26. This season the Patriots are 4-3 against the spread and the Dolphins 2-3-1.
Updated Oct 26, 2026
The last column is the Patriots on the road and the Dolphins at home.
| Team | 2026 | 2025 | Since 2021 | Away / home since 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 4-3 (57.1%) | 12-5 (70.6%) | 45-44-3 (50.6%) | 25-18-2 (58.1%) |
| Miami Dolphins | 2-3-1 (40.0%) | 8-9 (47.1%) | 45-44-2 (50.6%) | 23-20-1 (53.5%) |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Spread | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | MIA @ NE | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE -14 | New England Patriots by 14 |
| 2025-09-14 | NE @ MIA | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA -1.5 | New England Patriots by 7.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | NE @ MIA | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA -7.5 | Miami Dolphins by 11.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | MIA @ NE | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA -2 | Miami Dolphins by 3 |
| 2023-10-29 | NE @ MIA | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA -7.5 | Miami Dolphins by 6.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | MIA @ NE | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA -2 | Miami Dolphins by 5 |
Implied points come from the game's total and spread: the favorite gets (total + spread) / 2 and the underdog (total - spread) / 2. This is context, not a prediction.
| Team | Implied points | Points per game this season | Points allowed per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 26.0 | 22.9 (7 games) | 20.4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 18.5 | 16.3 (6 games) | 26.2 |
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ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
All Week 8 games · ATS standings · New England Patriots ATS record · Miami Dolphins ATS record
This page shows history and the posted line only. It is not a prediction.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.