Since 2021, NFL games have gone 678 over, 719 under, 11 push (48.5% over). These tables split every game by roof, weather, division matchups, the size of the posted total and the primetime slot.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Every record reads over-under-push. Over % excludes pushes.
| Split (record: over-under-push) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Since 2021 (O-U-P) | Over % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 124-145-3 | 119-149-3 | 124-146-2 | 145-124-3 | 142-130 | 24-25 | 678-719-11 | 48.5% |
| Dome or closed roof | 41-38 | 45-38-1 | 38-43 | 47-46-1 | 46-46 | 7-8 | 224-219-2 | 50.6% |
| Outdoors | 83-107-3 | 74-111-2 | 86-103-2 | 98-78-2 | 96-84 | 17-17 | 454-500-9 | 47.6% |
| Division games | 48-48 | 38-55-3 | 45-51 | 56-40 | 46-50 | 7-7 | 240-251-3 | 48.9% |
| Posted total of 47 or more | 55-67-1 | 30-40-1 | 25-31 | 37-37-2 | 46-40 | 10-4 | 203-219-4 | 48.1% |
| Posted total of 41 or less | 13-11 | 32-37-1 | 46-45-1 | 29-24 | 24-18 | 4-5 | 148-140-2 | 51.4% |
| Outdoors, under 40 degrees | 11-16 | 17-19 | 8-9 | 15-11-1 | 16-15 | - | 67-70-1 | 48.9% |
| Outdoors, wind 15 mph or more | 8-21 | 5-8 | 3-8-1 | 9-6 | 9-10 | - | 34-53-1 | 39.1% |
Since 2021.
| Slot | Record (over-under-push) | Over % |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday Night Football | 42-46 | 47.7% |
| Monday Night Football | 43-57-1 | 43.0% |
| Sunday Night Football | 39-51-3 | 43.3% |
A game goes over if the two teams score more than the posted total and under if they score less; landing exactly on it is a push.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.